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New Product First-Order Quantity Three-Factor Forecasting Calculator ​

Calculate the optimal first-order quantity from channel pre-sales and the cash-flow safety line.

📦 First-Order Quantity Three-Factor Calculator

Strictly follows 03.04: weighted benchmark + crowdfunding + channel commitments, with MOQ calibration, dual BEP gates and PO input quantity.

📝 Three-Factor Inputs

w1 = 0.40 ｜ w2 = 0.35 ｜ w3 = 0.25

📊 Weighted Result & Gates

Three-factor weighted theoretical quantity
1057.8 units
0.40 × 1312 + 0.35 × 880 + 0.25 × 900
Factor 1 benchmark
1312 units
Factor 2 crowdfunding
880 units
Factor 3 channel commitments
900 units
Mold-cost break-even point (BEP)
≈789 units
Upfront fixed investment $70,000 ÷ per-unit contribution margin $88.69
Approved saleable qty / PO input
1000 / 1060 units
Approved = max(2×MOQ, BEP rounded up to MOQ); PO = approved ÷ 94.3% effective yield (106% input)
Gate A · Approved ÷ BEP (≥1.25 to go)
1.27× · ✓ Pass
Gate B · Pessimistic weighted ÷ BEP (>1.00 to go)
1.06× · ✓ Pass
Pessimistic scenario ≈837 units (penetration 20% / email 6% / VIP 70% / channel 78%)
Three-scenario sensitivity
Pessimistic ≈837 ｜ Base ≈1058 ｜ Optimistic ≈1252 units
First-batch cash tied up (BOM + freight + NRE)
$186.6K – $194.0K
BOM $105/unit × 1060 + freight $5–12/unit + NRE $70,000

User Guide ​

  1. FOB unit price — Factory price, used to calculate capital tie-up
  2. Channel pre-sales volume — Confirmed channel order volume
  3. Estimated monthly sales — Expected average monthly sales volume
  4. Safety stock weeks — 4-6 weeks recommended
  5. Available cash flow — Funds currently available for stock-up

Calculation Logic ​

  • Safety stock = Estimated monthly sales × Safety stock weeks ÷ 4
  • Recommended order quantity = Channel pre-sales volume + Safety stock
  • Capital tie-up = Recommended order quantity × FOB unit price
  • Inventory turnover days = Recommended order quantity ÷ Estimated monthly sales × 30

Reference Documents ​

huajun.wang Smart Hardware GTM Playbook · Methodology

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